Draft Recap: Rounds 3 and 4

Please read rounds 1 and 2 if you havent already, rounds 3 and 4 showed where things started to slim out a little bit. Again, this is just my opinion......


ROUND THREE: “Sometimes I think the so-called Experts actually ARE the experts” - -Jack Handey

1. Kevin Youkilis: 3b – Hackensack Bulls

After taking two players with a combined age of 44, Hackensack decided to add some leadership to the squad by taking Boston 3b extraordinaire Kevin Youkilis. With the level of 3b left on the board this was a very fine pick even with the threat of him missing time. The question will be if he can stay healthy throughout the entire season as the Bulls only backup went down for the year.
Fearless Forecast: 281avg 75r 19hr 78rbi 2sb 67bb

2. Yovani Gallardo: SP – Olivet Killer Eagles

I had targeted Wieters initially with this pick then as the draft proceeded and the catchers went in the 2nd round I set my sights on Paul Konerko. However when my pick came up and I knew I wouldn’t have a selection until round 5 I decided to take advantage of the starting pitchers who fell. I went with Gallardo’s upside over Cain’s consistency and am glad I went with the SP because one ace on a squad can make up for a couple of mediocre pitchers. If he can turn his 2nd half of 2011 into a full season, where he struck out 103 in only 90 innings against only 15 walks; I’ll have my ace for the next few seasons.
Fearless Forecast: 16w 209k 3.38era 1.22whip

3. Matt Cain: SP – Michigan Miracles

Chris was in the same mindset that I was here, and said that “with no second round pick I didn’t think I’d get one of the top 3-4 pitchers. I was wrong” In Cain he gets one of the most consistent performers in MLB and he does so without much fanfare because he cannot seem to get run support. I had him and Gallardo pretty much even in my ranks however Cain is MUCH less of a risk because he’s put up nearly the exact same numbers over the past few seasons, and will likely do so again in 2012.
Fearless Forecast: 13w 177k 2.92era 1.06whip

4. David Ortiz: DH – Gaylord Dingers

Without a position Big Papi falls in an eMLB draft once again and here Mike snags him up. He added batting average to his repertoire last year but I would expect that to drop significantly in 2012, but the production doesn’t seem to be tapering off as many people thought a couple of seasons ago. He was one of the last of the power bats in the draft and Gaylord has Pujols at 1b so the Utility spot is as good as any. Outstanding pick in the 3rd round, no one else taken here other than possibly Konerko would hit 30 hrs, drive in 100 runs, score 80 and walk 80 times. The lack of position was only a minor negative.
Fearless Forecast: 277avg 82r 28hr 104rbi 1sb 80bb

5. C.J. Wilson: SP – Julian Javelina

It was inevitable that the starting pitcher run would start soon, it turns out that Johnson, Gallardo, and Cain were just the start. Jamie said nearly exactly what Chris and I did, “Wasn’t going to take a SP this early, but Wilson was difficult to pass up”. He was the logical next selection as far as SP went because after him there were question marks. He moves out to Los Angeles and should benefit from getting out of The Ballpark in Arlington. I was skeptical of Wilson last year, thinking another full season in the rotation would wear him down. I was dead wrong as he improved across the board. While I don’t know if he’ll repeat last years numbers I can see him coming damn near.
Fearless Forecast: 18w 184K 3.21ERA 1.21whip

6. Freddie Freeman: 1b – Springfield Flying Squirrels of Republic

The youth movement in Springfield has officially begun. Brett Lawrie was taken in round two to man the hot corner now the young Brave will be the 1b of the future. Had Adam been better equipped to contend for a title this season I think he would have went with surer bets here, like Konerko or possibly Ryan Howard. As it stands the Squirrels will hope that Freeman can build upon an excellent rookie season where he hit 21 hrs, drove in 76, while hitting 282. He doesn’t have the pedigree that Eric Hosmer does but he’s not a major step down as of yet. If he can solve lefties he’ll progress nicely this year.
Fearless Forecast: 275ba 73r 24hr 83rbi 3sb 58bb

7. Paul Goldschmidt: 1b – Rochester Red Sox

He burst onto the scene last year for Arizona, hitting 8 hrs scoring 28 runs while driving in 26 in only 156 MLB at bats. This was after hitting 30 hrs in 2/3 of a season in AA. He’ll be the Yin to Mark Reynolds Yin this year for Rochester. They may combine for 60 homers and a .230 batting average. There will be serious concerns if he doesn’t cut down on the strike outs, his K/AB was eerily similar to his teammate across the diamond, however the power is legitimate and if he can stay in the lineup he’ll top 30 hrs fairly easily I think.
Fearless Forecast: 244avg 72r 31hr 88rbi 8sb

8. Ryan Howard: 1b – Hackensack

I gave Howard a brief thought at 3.2, but then I remembered I already have Kendrys Morales on my bench and didn’t need to risk another. The Bulls weren’t shy about taking him though and will probably reap the rewards of his power even at less than a full season. He has declined over the past few seasons so there are a few causes for concern, his .488 slugging sticks out as well as his contact rate. His 40 homer days may already be behind him but at 3.8 he had to be taken and the Bulls will need his power. GM Cashenstein only had one remark “I didn’t even know I was in the market for another 1b….”
Fearless Forecast: 257avg 67r 26hr 80rbi 0sb 56bb (466ab)

9. Miguel Montero: C – Oviedo Knights

Montero came back from an injury shortened 2010 to put up wonderful numbers behind the plate last year for Arizona. If he can stay healthy again this season I don’t see much regression happening. GM Reynolds stated, “This will be like McCann but a little cheaper”. Other than HRs he has a valid point, except for pure consistency season to season. Being taken 18 picks after McCann I would say it’s a lot cheaper as well. Damn it Mike, you make it hard not to mention the word “Value”
Fearless Forecast: 279avg 66r 18hr 76rbi 1 sb 45bb

10. Paul Konerko: 1b – Oviedo Knights

Speaking of value, why the hell was this guy still sitting here mid way through the third round? Don’t get me wrong I can buy into some upsides with Goldschmidt or Freeman but just because Konerko is pulling his 30s rather than pushing them doesn’t mean he should have been taken this late. He has shown no signs of slowing up, even at the ripe old age of 36. We should all be ashamed he fell this far to be honest, and those are my words not Mike’s. His probably contain the word “idiots” and “thanks” somewhere within.
Fearless Forecast: 288avg 73r 29hr 104rbi 0sb 72bb

11. Peter Bourjos: OF – Gaylord Dingers

This was a curious selection to me. Bourjos showed some pop late in the season but I wouldn’t expect him to sustain that over the course of a season however the speed is legit if he gets the opportunity to use it. It seems this is the type of model Gaylord uses to build his outfield each year, and for the most part it normally works out alright. I just think there are too many Ifs here. For what he’s likely to produce I believe there were similar guys who would have been much cheaper, and even though his defense is stellar you have to believe if he doesn’t hit well he could be replaced in the lineup by Trout.
Fearless Forecast: 277avg 75r 10hr 41rbi 24sb 33bbs

12. Danny Espinosa: 2b – San Antonio Fire Ants

So what player will show up in 2012? The guy, who hit 16 hrs, scored 45 runs, drove in 52 runs and stole 12 sbs before the all star break, or the one, who hit 5, scored 27, drove in 14 and stole 5 after? He has an all or nothing approach that will lead to many slumps, where his batting average is going to be poor regardless. He may approach 20/20 though which isn’t anything to sneeze at, and I’ve said before he’s a poor man’s Kelly Johnson. I’m just not sure if that’s a compliment or insult to Espinosa, or to Johnson, or a testament of how 20/20 has become relevant in fantasy sports again.
Fearless Forecast: 238avg 74r 16hr 67rbi 19sb 54bb

13. Michael Pineda: SP – Dallas Redbirds

Dallas seems to have a mold for their team that works for them. They replaced Howard with Teixeira, then Andrus with Reyes. Now in the 3rd round they have replaced Matt Garza with Michael Pineda. (Unless you count him taking Garza next round of course, I just don’t feel like re-writing anything) All three have been upgrades for the Redbirds. Pineda has lights out stuff and I am actually surprised he survived this long in the draft. The move to New York is likely to drive up his ERA and WHIP but assuming he’s on no leash this year and can top 200 innings he’ll also top 200 strike outs. Plus, if Ivan Nova can win 16 games there’s no reason to think Pineda won’t top that mark although it’s an unpredictable stat; just ask Matt Cain.
Fearless Forecast: 17w 194k 3.58era 1.12whip

14. Drew Storen: CL – Atlantic Surge

I am a big fan of Storen especially getting a chance to own him for most of the season last year. I had Papelbon as the top closer option in the draft but Storen should hold his own head to head. He was somewhat lucky last year but I don’t foresee a major drop off in anything and the Nationals have some solid SP to get the ball to Clippard in the 8th before him. Another 40 save season seems probable.
Fearless Forecast: 42sv 82k 2.98era 1.10whip

15. Matt Moore: SP – South Texas Heat

As with Pineda, I thought someone would reach for Moore even earlier than this. It reminds me somewhat of when David Price came up late for Tampa then had the stellar run in the playoffs as a semi-closer. Moore’s stuff is unquestioned and is probably destined to be one of the aces in the American League very soon. GM Berg stated; “His minor league numbers are unheard of, lets see how they translate into the big leagues”. Digging a little deeper, in about 500 minor league innings he’s managed 12.9 strikeouts per 9 so he was definitely over powering there and in a brief stint he took his show on the road to “The Show”. This will be an intriguing player to watch, I love watching stellar pitching make hitters look stupid.
Fearless Forecast: 15w 185k 2.95era 1.22whip

16. Dustin Ackley: 2b – Arizona Desert Swarm

One of a few up and coming young 2b in the draft, Ackley probably came with the most hype. He has never shown much power in the minors and his speed lacks so I’m not sure what the hype is all about. His counting stats will be limited due to his ballpark and his teammates, and I really believe 2b was much deeper than some other positions in the draft. There would have been comparable guys available several rounds later for what Ackley’s likely to put up.
Fearless Forecast: 274avg 68r 8hr 63rbi 7sb 63bb


ROUND FOUR: “The race isn’t always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong—but that’s the way to bet.” – Damon Runyon

1. Yu Darvish: SP – Hackensack Bulls

One of the most hyped pitchers ever coming out of Japan, the Bulls snag him up here in hopes his sub 2.00 ERA in Japan can translate over to the States. With the contract Texas signed him to there must be faith that he can. Other than faith though what can you really expect, Dice-K was supposed to be amazing as well. Also is it just me, or does he look like the hot dog eating contest dude’s twin?
Fearless Forecast: 15w 180k 3.50era 1.05whip

2. Carlos Quentin: OF – Charlotte Orios

If he could ever stay healthy for an entire season he would easily surpass the 30 hr / 100 RBI plateau even with a mediocre batting average. However he hasn’t in 4 years and now will be playing in San Diego where home runs go to die. I think given his track record this pick could have waited at least a round but the Orios front office is hoping for a healthy season. And fantasy baseball without hope is just stats and information to process mentally as indicators and trends.
Fearless Forecast: 255avg 62r 25hr 72rbi 1sb 44bb

3. Brandon Beachy: SP – Michigan Miracles

I assumed after the Cain selection in round 3 that Michigan would go back and take another hitter off the board. That wasn’t the case here and they take the Braves young SP. He was about as dominant as any and led all starters in K/9 last year but health could be an issue. He didn’t seem to last long in his starts which will hold him back somewhat until he grows as a starter in the bigs. I am a huge fan of high strikeout pitchers though and not many have his upside there. He could step up and become ace 1.b to Cain’s 1.a
Fearless Forecast: 12w 185k 3.82era 1.26whip (172ip)

4. Ichiro Suzuki: OF – Julian Javelina

Like just about every other Mariner, Ichiro is coming off a pretty poor season. Even at 38 years old it seems to have come out of nowhere so you have to believe it was semi-flukish. Just to show you how bad Seattle has been over the last 3 seasons, Ichiro has failed to score 90 runs even with getting on base over 250 times in two of those years and 220 last. I doubt guys like Ackley, Montero and Carp change that trend either. I’m on the fence with this pick, especially for a team who was apparently rebuilding. The only thing I see changing from a year ago is a higher batting average, he should still be around 80 runs and 40 steals.
Fearless Forecast: 295avg 80r 7hr 41rbi 41sb 37bb

5. Wilson Ramos: C – Julian Javelina

A self-admitted reach here, the Javelina seem to be pretty high on the Nats catcher. I can see a few reasons why he would be, assuming he can reach the 450 at bats needed to be valid starting C in eMLB these days. Jamie’s 70, 15, 75, projection may be pretty optimistic but it isn’t unrealistic by any means. Half joking, being abducted in the off-season may give him a new lease on life and could motivate him to become a better ballplayer.
Fearless Forecast: 266avg 58r 16hr 62rbi 0 sb 39bb

6. Adam Wainwright: SP – Springfield Squirrels of Republic

Before being lost for the 2011 season Wainwright was a top 5 starting pitcher in fantasy. He’ll likely take awhile to get back to ace status but in time he should. Historically pitchers haven’t always been the same the first season back from Tommy John surgery but with this team playing for the future he should be raring to go in 2013 for Republic. Adam will likely hold onto him tightly, unlike Atlanta who traded him to St Louis for J.D. Drew
Fearless Forecast: 13w 182k 2.94era 1.17whip (190ip)

7. Jesus Montero: DH – Rochester Red Sox

Another highly hyped player, the move to Seattle hurts his value a little bit but probably gets him C eligibility much quicker. From all reports I’ve read, the kid can rake. He’ll get everyday playing time in Seattle and even though he’s surrounded by Quad A players I can see him putting up fairly decent numbers, especially if Ackley can hit above 280 in front of him.
Fearless Forecast: 292avg 57r 17hr 72rbi 2sb 45bb

8. Josh Beckett: SP – Charlotte Orios

Broskey must have planned on doing a better job grabbing SP behind Beckett because this was actually a decent pick here. Beckett isn’t a model of consistency or anything but he’s too good of a pitcher to continue his good season / poor season trend forever. He would have been a nice anchor to the Orios staff but was traded away for Joel Hanrahan (5.10) and Jonathan Sanchez (11.9). I believe he was convinced by someone that one good pitcher among many bad ones would do less good than having a stud closer.
Fearless Forecast: 15w 192k 4.00era 1.25whip

9. Torii Hunter: OF – Mid Michigan Tigers

Hunter’s average has declined over the last few years and his success rate as a base stealer has become very poor but other than that he is still a productive and consistent performer. He doesn’t have the power upside of a Quentin or the speed upside of Bourjos but he should be a better option overall than both of them. Much like Konerko he was severely discounted due to his age.
Fearless Forecast: 266avg 81r 21hr 82rbi 7sb 65bb

10. Brandon Belt: OF/1b – Mid Michigan Tigers

This was a reach in my opinion after a nice pick with Hunter. I’m not sure what the basis of the pick was here but the multiposition and upside was a major part I’m sure. He has hit extremely well in the minors and will only need a chance to play everyday in order to prove what he can do. I think with consistent PT he’ll be a fine fantasy OF this year but much too early for my taste.
Fearless Forecast: 288avg 66r 16hr 71rbi 3sb 58bb

11. Mark Trumbo: 1b – Atlantic Surge

He’s like the Angels present version of Troy Glaus, he just may not have a spot in the lineup, at least not a regular one. There were rumors that he would be tested at 3b so he could stick there possibly. He’s a big time power hitter but will need to improve his walk rate to progress much better than his 2011 numbers, though if he finds his way into 540 at bats again he’ll come close.
Fearless Forecast: 250avg 45r 20hr 58rbi 5sb 22bb (350ab)

12. Jonathan Papelbon: CL – Michigan Miracles

Maybe it’s my opinion on closers but I really don’t see the point of having 3 of them. That being said, I had Papelbon as the best in the draft so at the end of the 4th round he got decent value out of him. He’s a high K closer which is nice because he’ll help in more than just one category. Moving to Philadelphia shouldn’t affect his numbers one way or the other though and should finish as one of the top 3.
Fearless Forecast: 44sv 88k 2.65era 1.15whip

13. Matt Garza: SP – Dallas Redbirds

“As the run on weak hitting took place, I decided to bulk up on solid SP to build around” Steve said afterward. I don’t think he planned on taking SP consecutively but he did get two solid arms to build around with hopes of returning to the championship playoffs either this year or next. Garza has been slightly volatile at times but has settled into an above average arm with good K numbers and has proven to be durable. He put together an excellent 2nd half in 2011 so at age 28 he could finally be becoming the ace many thought he would be when he came up with the Twins.
Fearless Forecast: 16w 188k 3.75era 1.24whip

14. Max Scherzer: SP – Rochester Red Sox

For a team highly regarded across the league as one of the favorites to win it all, they had some really questionable draft picks early on. Scherzer has been up and down since coming to Detroit in 2010 but seems to be settling into a #3 starter. He has shown dominance here and there but he gets himself into trouble too often with his command, especially with his slider, which led to a lot of 3 run homers last year. He can rack up strike outs at times too but it seems to drive his pitch count up, but that is something that Verlander went through for a couple years as well. Scherzer doesn’t have nearly the “stuff” JV does but I think if he can keep the ball down he’ll be an ok option. There’s a lot that needs to go right here to expect it all will.
Fearless Forecast: 14w 178k 3.92era 1.33whip

15. Jason Kipnis: 2b – South Texas Heat

Not sure why Ackley has gotten more hype than this kid but I’m sure the Heat aren’t complaining having him around late in the 4th. He may not hit for the same average as Ackley but he has much more power upside and should get into double digits in steals as well. Cleveland has a decent lineup around him also, even towards the bottom where Kipnis will be most every day. If pitchers don’t figure him out and he proves he can hit lefties he should put together a pretty nice season for 2b standards.
Fearless Forecast: 258avg 67r 19hr 70rbi 12sb 36bb

16. Dee Gordon: SS – Arizona Desert Swarm

This one was listed as “predrafted” so I am not sure if this was a decision made by the GM of the Swarm or by the MDC. Given the fact that JJ Hardy was taken a short while later leads me to believe this was a mistake one way or the other. However, if Gordon can hit well enough to stick in the lineup and get on base consistently he may steal well over 50 bases. He’ll have to keep up an insanely high contact rate without a better walk rate than he showed last year in his MLB time (7 walks in 224 at bats) in order to do so. If not then he could end up just another Joey Gathright.
Fearless Forecast: 284avg 78r 0hr 22rbi 44sb 26bb