2012 Draft Recap w Commentary (Rds 1 and 2)

2012 eMLB Draft Recap w/ Commentary

**Note: I would like to do about 10 rounds worth of this, and keep in mind this is 100% my opinion and the projections made have come purely from my noggin. I hope its at least an enjoyable read because I am having fun doing this.**

ROUND ONE: (In the world of Fantasy Baseball, hitting is King)

1. Jose Bautista: 3b/OF – Olivet Killer Eagles

Even before the lottery determined the top 3 picks I knew I would have my choice of Bautista or Cano, figuring the top two picks would be Tulowitski and Gonzalez regardless of order. As it turns out I got the #1 pick and was set to take Cano until I was able to receive another 1st round pick. At that point I figured I would take best player available, contract length notwithstanding. Jose Bautista was tops on my board.
Fearless Forecast: 280avg 102r 37hr 110rbi 7sb 105bb

2. Mike Stanton: OF – Hackensack Bulls

I still consider Justin Upton to be the better overall player over the next five years but the Bulls make some valid points regarding Stanton. Over the next 5 seasons he has a good chance of being one of the top HR hitters in the league alongside guys like Fielder, Pujols, and possibly Bautista. Power is king these days and it was too much for the Bulls to pass on.
Fearless Forecast: 275avg 91r 36hr 102rbi 1sb 81bb

3. Troy Tulowitzki: SS – South Texas Heat

The Heat traded Prince Fielder to move into a spot to take Tulowitzki and place a 5 year on him. Tulowitzki’s ceiling is enormous but has to get over the little injuries that he seems to fight through every year. Honestly if he didn’t have that one little question mark he would have been taken first overall. As it stands the Heat get probably the best talent in the draft at a position that is historically slim with talent (I would argue otherwise this year)
Fearless Forecast: 311avg 96r 29hr 100rbi 13sb 76bb

4. Justin Upton: OF – Atlantic Surge

The Surge had plenty to choose from at this spot but went with the guy many had him taking in the pre-draft mocks. The temptation of taking Gonzalez may have been there but he went with the man with the most upside and will never look back. At age 24 he hasn’t even begun to hit his peak years. That is scary considering the numbers he has put up already. Another season or two and he’ll be the top OF with Kemp in fantasy in my opinion. For now I’ll say he takes another step forward in 2012.
Fearless Forecast: 296avg 112r 34hr 107rbi 23sb 65bb

5. Adrian Gonzalez: 1b – Julian Javelina

Jamie was probably doing cartwheels as the top few picks unfolded in front of him and has said that he was “shocked” that Adrian Gonzalez was still sitting there at #5. As far as safe bets go, he and Cano were the two safest players in the draft. At age 29 Gonzalez should see 3-4 years of top flight production for Julian and is no worse than the 2nd or 3rd best 1b in the league with the possibility of being tops if he can turn some of those doubles into homers this season.
Fearless Forecast: 309avg 104r 33hr 124rbi 1sb 79bb

6. Robinson Cano: 2b – Springfield Flying Squirrels of Republic

In a mock done just a few days before the draft started Adam claimed he would not pass on Robinson Cano if available even having Uggla on the roster. “Dan Uggla will make a fine Utility man” was the statement. The Squirrels didn’t go back on their word and selected Cano at 6. The team will be rewarded with one of the most productive players year to year for the length of time he’s a Squirrel. The knock on him was his lack of SB and BB but other than that I don’t see anyone else other than Gonzalez in this draft being as safe of a pick.
Fearless Forecast: 301avg 112r 28hr 110rbi 6sb 38bb

7. Andrew McCutchen: OF – Oviedo Knights

The Knights wanted Robinson Cano here and figured Springfield would take McCutchen over him having Uggla locked into 2nd base. Life didn’t happen that way so they drafted the man most mocks had him taking here. Like Reynolds said; “A rare 6 tool OF”, McCutchen is very close if he can rebound to his previous batting average levels. He’s the type of player the Knights have been successful with over the years and will be the face of the organization moving forward. I know his favorite word is “value” but there is tons of value in a player that will not hinder any category.
Fearless Forecast: 283avg 98r 26hr 90rbi 27sb 82bb

8. Mark Teixeira: 1b – Dallas Redbirds

The Redbirds admittedly moved up into round one to take Tex here, and they got their man. Many worry about his drop in batting average over the last few years but it’s not what you’re paying for with this guy. Having lost Ryan Howard to free agency this was a logical choice for Dallas.
Fearless Forecast: 261avg 99r 37hr 111rbi 0sb 82bb

9. Hanley Ramirez: SS(3b) – Olivet Killer Eagles

He has had his issues with being lazy and last year had the shoulder injury but I wasn’t about to write him off. There were reports he wasn’t happy about the move to 3rd base but all signs so far show he’s at least going to put on a happy face and try it out. I wanted to build some balance in the draft and while I am not banking on a return to 2009 levels I am pretty certain he’ll be near 2010 with two position eligibility to boot. At age 28 he could easily return to fantasy stud status as well.
Fearless Forecast: 300avg 102r 19hr 84rbi 30sb 62bb

10. Elvis Andrus: SS – North Texas Rangers

The 3rd of 4 projected shortstops to go in the first round, Adrian got his first of many Rangers in this draft also. I’m not sure exactly what he gained moving out of the first then back into it but I wrote in my mock that this was the guy he wanted. Now on one hand I was sold by Berg on the Andrus vs. Reyes argument however I am not sure about him being a 1st round talent. Don’t get me wrong there’s a lot to like here but he will have to develop some pop to earn this selection.
Fearless Forecast: 275avg 102r 6hr 52rbi 39sb 58bb

11. Jose Reyes: SS – Dallas Redbirds

Dallas got their power with Teixeira so they went back to their basic style with a high average, runs, sb player and took Reyes here. Don’t want to be redundant so see Andrus above. If he can stay healthy he’ll definitely benefit from the move to Miami from the Mets with bats like Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton hitting behind him. Although he’s only 28 it seems like he’s 36 as long as he’s been around so health will be key here. I think in hindsight here, if I were in his shoes I would have taken Jay Bruce.
Fearless Forecast: 297avg 112r 8hr 49rbi 38sb 42bb

12. Hunter Pence: OF – Michigan Miracles

Before the winter meetings I had initially pegged Pence for a possibility at pick 2.2 but his stock rose (justifiably) as the winter meetings and pre-draft progressed. Pence is the type of player that doesn’t get much praise because he just goes about his business quietly. The move out of Houston to Philadelphia revived him last season and should set him up for a career year in 2012. Even if he puts up numbers somewhere between 2010-2011 he’ll help across the board with the exception of BBs. I love this pick for Michigan. Bruce may be the better power option but the consistency of Pence speaks worlds of his value to a fantasy team.
Fearless Forecast: 288avg 95r 26hr 101rbi 12sb 58bb

13. Jay Bruce: OF – Mid-Michigan Tigers

Not sure which outfielder they would have selected here but I believe the Tigers moving down in the draft ultimately cost them Pence. As it stands the team gets a young power hitter which are hard to come by these days and it appears this team is on a multi-year rebuild plan after a few of their contracts didn’t pan out last season. The Tigers are being predicted to be a lottery team by some early power rankings so Bruce may end up being Miggy’s “Robin” for more than just 2012. If there is a big breakout season in his future it should come during the duration of his stay with the Tigers, but he may just be a younger version of Adam Dunn (pre Appendectomy that is)
Fearless Forecast: 253avg 88r 39hr 107rbi 7sb 66bb

14. Desmond Jennings: OF – Rochester Red Sox

There was a reason no one could predict who Rich would take with his first round selection, it was because he took a 2nd round player. I won’t argue the fact that this was the only chance he would get to take Jennings but I think he would have been better served to move into the 2nd round and take him there. Regardless he is going to be an elite SB threat this year and will definitely score plenty of runs. I don’t buy him having quite the power he showed briefly last season but his speed will keep his batting average reasonable. He will eventually earn this selection, but I really don’t think it’ll be until 2013 at the earliest.
Fearless Forecast: 277avg 92r 9hr 49rbi 45sb 62bb

15. Nelson Cruz: OF – North Texas Rangers

Adrian’s Homer-ness is epic. This selection was a surprise to nobody except for those who thought that this pick would be Josh Hamilton. One has to wonder how bad his team would be had he been born in Washington and grown into a Mariner fan. Needless to say Cruz was a nice selection here and should post higher end numbers as long as he’s on the field. He’ll likely end up on the DL at some point but as long as he’s healthy when the Rangers need him this will prove to be a nice pick.
Fearless Forecast: 288avg 82r 34hr 97rbi 8sb 35bb

16. Cliff Lee: SP – Arizona Desert Swarm

I’m sure the Swarm were set to sit back and watch the first round and take the best player available once his turn rolled around. As it turns out the best player available was the best SP in the draft and one of the top few in the league. What’s there to say about this pick other than its pure Gold? He may have been hoping one of the bigger hitters would slip here but at the very least he has excellent trade bait for those needing SP.
Fearless Forecast: 19w 212k 2.89era 1.04whip


ROUND TWO: “Do Not Fear Mistakes. You Will Know Failure. Continue To Reach Out.” - -Benjamin Franklin

1. Eric Hosmer: 1b – Hackensack Bulls

After passing on Adrian Gonzalez in the first round they take the young Royal here in the 2nd. Jennings and Hosmer have started the youth movement of this draft. There were plenty of young stars to choose from although they all seemed to be taken earlier than expected. Hosmer had a real nice rookie season and looks to build upon that for the next few seasons as a Bull. Short term however he looks like a left handed Billy Butler; nice average, decent pop, decent rbi. On the plus side of things he should be among the leaders at 1b in stolen bases.
Fearless Forecast: 291avg 72r 21hr 89rbi 13sb 44bb

2. Adrian Beltre: 3b – Charlotte Orios

Beltre slipped in the draft and was snagged up here by the Orios. Apparently his age and some of his history of nicks and bruises played a part in him falling to the 2nd round but I don’t think you can go wrong with a 2 year on the guy with the numbers he has put up after finally getting out of Seattle. He has since been shipped off to North Texas in a questionable trade for the Orios. As far as value goes this was one of the better steals of the draft in my opinion. 3b has turned into the thinnest position in fantasy baseball and there were only a few reliable options in the draft to begin with.
Fearless Forecast: 301avg 80r 31hr 100rbi 2 sb 23bb

3. Josh Hamilton: OF – San Antonio Fire Ants

Had they not traded out of the first round there was a chance the Ants would have taken Hamilton there as well so the deal with Michigan turned out quite nice for them. I know Hamilton had his relapse at a Texas bar and I hope it doesn’t affect his play on the field this season. I think this should be another steal of a selection in the 2nd round as long as he doesn’t miss too much time due to injury. Last year’s time off was fluky after trying to tag from third on a foul pop out. Given his history I think he’ll rebound from his troubles and put up another highly productive season, and for personal reasons I will be rooting for him.
Fearless Forecast: 312avg 83r 28hr 104rbi 8sb 37bb

4. Chris Young: OF – South Texas Heat

This selection was one of the surprises of the 2nd round but as Berg explained later; “I wanted to draft Young at 2.15 but didn’t want to gamble that he would still be there”. I can see the logic of that considering Young’s ability across the board to help everything but batting average. He averages about 90-20-80-25-75 over the past two seasons, but if you dig deeper you have to wonder how many weeks he put up very little due to a 1-19 slump. If he can avoid those he’ll be worth the selection here, especially if he’s on a hot streak once the playoffs begin.
Fearless Forecast: 241avg 92r 23hr 79rbi 23sb 76bb

5. Alex Gordon: OF – Julian Javelina

Outfielders were going fast and the teams up top of the 2nd round were feeling the pressure to take them before they wanted to. Gordon finally lived up to the hype last year but will have to prove to fantasy owners (Jamie especially) that it was for real. The average is bound to fall as he was a little lucky last year but the rest of his stat line reads out very well. His RBI output will increase this year if he’s not slotted in the leadoff spot like he was quite often last year but the downtick in at bats may level out the numbers regardless.
Fearless Forecast: 281avg 87r 24hr 94rbi 15sb 65bb

6. Brett Lawrie: 3b – Springfield Squirrels of Republic

One of the more hyped players in recent memory its no surprise Lawrie was drafted this high. The Bulls were actually considering him at 2.1 but took Hosmer instead. Given the lack of talent at 3b this pick isn’t as much of a reach as it could be. I think over the course of his contract he’ll provide the Squirrels with 5 category production but don’t think he’ll be the stud that people predict for another year or two. He should benefit from his lineup and playing half his games at Rogers Centre though, I just wouldn’t go coining him David Wright Jr. just yet.
Fearless Forecast: 281avg 85r 17hr 76rbi 22sb 44bb

7. Brian McCann: C – Mid Michigan Tigers

McCann was selected over Napoli and with good reason based on track record. There isn’t a more consistent catcher option out there and the Tigers weren’t in a position to gamble having traded away some picks for Kendrick. This started a minor catcher run that affected the 3rd round and was about the time I suspected the top 2 options would go……
Fearless Forecast: 268avg 57r 25hr 82rbi 2sb 58bb

8. Joe Mauer: C – Charlotte Orios

…..I just never expected the second option to be Joe Mauer. Granted I do think he’ll bounce back from last years lost season I just believe the Orios are putting too much faith in the gamble. After a steal of a pick in Beltre this set the Orios back quite a bit, passing on players with more production for the chance that Mauer sniffs a whole lot of that 2009 glue.
Fearless Forecast: 303avg 68r 9hr 71rbi 5sb 61bb

9. Cole Hamels: SP – Oviedo Knights

Most had him projected as the 2nd best SP in the draft but not many would have believed he would slip this far into the second round. The Knights were not about to pass on the chance of drafting an ace starter at this point and would have been crazy had they done so. He’s in the upper echelon of SP and was one of the biggest steals of the draft. The theme of this draft was two fold; 1. Hitters went early and often and 2. Youngsters were in high demand. Mike took advantage with this selection
Fearless Forecast: 18w 195k 3.25era 1.15whip

10. Mike Napoli: C – You Guessed It North Texas Rangers

Again he takes a Ranger and again it’s a good pick. Napoli slipped further than I expected he would and Adrian was pissing his pants in worry that the Tigers, Orios, and Knights would foil his plans of taking every Ranger available in the draft. He got his man here in hopes he continues to get the at bats he received last year. I don’t know if you can expect Napoli to come within 40 points of that batting average again but given 450 abs 30 hrs is definitely not out of the question.
Fearless Forecast: 275avg 67r 27hr 82rbi 3sb 47bb

11. Rickie Weeks: 2b – Gaylord Dingers

Gaylord’s first pick of the draft ended up being the top 2b aside from Cano. I’m one of the few people in the league who wasn’t going to consider drafting Weeks so my opinion is a slice of bias. He’s had one season of full health out of half a dozen years and even with his potential I think the risk factor is way too high for this round, considering the talent that was still on the board. That being said he was among the few second basemen left with much of a track record at all and the Dingers were willing to accept the risk involved with taking Weeks.
Fearless Forecast: 264avg 73r 18hr 51rbi 8sb 51bb

12. Pablo Sandoval: 3b – San Antonio Fire Ants

Assuming his weight isn’t an issue again, this should be a fine selection for the Ants. Given health and weight he has a chance to be one of the top tier 3b in the league (which ultimately isn’t saying a lot but its something) He missed some time last year yet was still in line for the same type of season as 2009. The problem is it appears he came to camp fat as hell again and even though he claims its muscle most around the organization have their doubts. It is something to keep an eye on this spring for sure.
Fearless Forecast: 310avg 66r 22hr 87rbi 2sb 35bb

13. Matt Wieters: C – Gaylord Dingers

After not being impressed with the Weeks pick, Wagner turns around and totally redeems himself with this one. It may have been a “TAD” early but not by much. I was targeting him with my 3.2 pick and I think it was a possibility until the C run started earlier this round. At age 25 he’s starting to come into his own and already put together a season last year that rivals McCann. I believe he’ll only get better over the next couple of seasons and will be one of the top catchers, if not THE top catcher in fantasy baseball starting this year.
Fearless Forecast: 275avg 75r 26hr 81rbi 0sb 46bb

14. Josh Johnson: SP – Rochester Red Sox

Showing everyone that they’re willing to take a risk, the Red Sox follow up their Jennings pick with Josh Johnson. This is another SP that is a stud when healthy but hasn’t been able to stay that way much in his career. If the stars align and he toes the rubber 30 times this will turn out to be a steal at this point of the 2nd round. However, right now it’s no more than a calculated risk that only a team with some returning stars like Rochester could take.
Fearless Forecast: 10 165k 2.80era 1.18whip (170IP)

15. Alex Rodriguez: 3b – South Texas Heat

Age and injury concerns allowed ARod to fall this far down, but the Heat weren’t concerned enough to let him pass. I don’t blame him. I think you may see a more motivated Rodriguez in 2012 after a few lacking seasons (for him). Given the fact that his girlfriend Torrie Wilson is in better shape than he is, you might see a chip on his shoulder for once. I’m fairly optimistic about this selection but am glad I am not the one taking the risk. I can’t think of anything else to say because for some reason I just can’t stop thinking about a Playboy I once read…..
Fearless Forecast: 282avg 86r 28hr 102rbi 6sb 55bb

16. Adam Jones: OF – Arizona Desert Swarm

Another round for the Swarm to watch and see what would fall. This time they grabbed probably the last solid OF option on the board in Adam Jones. Aside from swinging at everything Jones should prove to solidify the Swarm offense. He doesn’t steal much, doesn’t score a lot due to his lineup but he has improved his production and is a perennial 280 hitter. Considering the next two OFs taken in the draft were Bourjos and Quentin, I believe the Swarm could have done much worse here than Jones.
Fearless Forecast: 286avg 73r 24hr 81rbi 14sb 28bb